GOLD GLITTERS BUT WILL IT GLOW? BFM INTERVIEW WITH DATO' LOUIS NG

http://bfm.my/assets/files/RinggitAndSense/2012_05_24_RinggitAndSense_PublicGold.mp3

Let's hear this out.
Dato' Louis Ng's radio interview with BFM Radio - The Business Station.

2001, gold price starts to boom until 2011. Gold is the excellent asset class.
2011, slow growth but positive
2012, no gain yet.

Forecast for this year (2012) depends on Federal Reserve (Fedex). Are they going to pursue on QE3?

QE3 : Quantitative Easing 3. In layman term, QE is the printing of US Dollars.
Question is will it take place?
If Fedex is going to launch/ pursue on QE3, the commodity price especially gold will jump.

Gold is part of monetary system.

Dato' Louis expected the gold price to increase by 15% to USD1800/oz - USD1900/oz by end of the year 2012.


Gold appreciates against USD. RM has any impact? 

Pegging period, USD1 : RM3.70 happened 14 years ago. Our currency appreciates from RM3.10 to RM3.70, an increase of 18% - 20%. Gold price appreciated more than that, then. Thus, offset of loss of currency strengthen is minimum.


How long do you need to hold gold?


People always look for return on every investment. As per Dato' Louis, the thinking has to be changed that we buy gold to protect our purchasing power in the real wealth term. In the market, too many people has too much money.

1971, Richard Nixon decide to back USD with gold. There is no gold to back. At that time gold price is only USD35/oz. Now gold price is about USD1600/oz. Multiple to 40 times.

Comparing price of nasi lemak in 1970s and now. Nasi lemak is the same. Commodity is still the same.

Commodity does not increase in price but because of the depreciation of the currency.

Mankind increase more fiat money, not backed with gold/silver, the currency with depreciate more.

Gold is the ultimate money.

EXPERIENCING ARRAHNU

AR-RAHNU AGRO BANK   

I shall write today my experience going to ArRahnu Agro Bank, Klang.

What is ArRahnu?

An Islamic pawn broking scheme based on Syariah principles of Al-Qard, Al-Wadiah and Al-Ujrah which provides a source of immediate financing to assist individuals in overcoming cash-flow needs, offering investment opportunities as well preventing from illegal/unlicensed financing activities.

Agro Bank only accepts gold jewelleries to be ArRahn.

Nowadays to 'rahn' your gold jewelleries, you have to come early to the bank and get your number.  Once ArRahnu Agro Bank finishes their allocated numbers, the officers will not entertain anymore people that day. You have to come on other days.

Once your number is called upon, you will be served by a Bank Officer. You have to fill up three types of documents as to ensure that you are the owner of the jewelleries and other terms and conditions. Your jewelleries will be tested to ensure that they are genuine and pure.  They will also be weighed to determine the actual weight.

The bank publishes the daily prices for the gold.

Say I bring 100g jewellery gold 916. The published price at Arahnu is RM183.70. Thus the jewellery has ‘nilai marhum’  amounting to RM18,370.00.
Maximum loan that you can take out is 70%.  Thus for your 100g gold bar, you can get cash of RM12,859.00 (at 70%)
The safekeeping fee 'upah simpan' is RM0.75 for every RM100 gold jewellery kept. Thus one month, the safekeeping fee is RM18,370/RM100 x RM0.75 = RM137.80
Maximum period you can keep for the first time is 6 months. Thus the storage fee for the 6 months’ period is RM826.65.

Details of ArRahnu Facility AGRO Bank is in the link http://www.agrobank.com.my/ar-rahnu

SAFEKEEPING FEE

Enjoy low administration fee as follows:

Margin Pinjaman	Upah Simpan bagi setiap RM100.00 Nilai Marhun/Bulan
50%	RM0.50
60%	RM0.60
70%	RM0.75

PAWN DURATION

6 + 3 + 2 months

The first duration is for 6 months, can be extended for another 3 months and lastly for another 2 months.


AR-RAHNU TIME ZONE SDN BHD (HABIB JEWELS)

I was in Time Zone last Saturday, for fact finding.

Ar-Rahnu Time Zone Sdn Bhd is located besides Habib Jewels outlet Ampang Point.

Here, we can place Public Gold gold bar and dinar. You have to produce a receipt.

Price for gold bar 999 last Saturday is RM149/g. If you bring in 50g gold bar, the value or 'nilai marhun' is 50g x RM149/g = RM7450. 75% of the value can be arRahn to you = RM5,587.00. 

The ArRahn amount of RM5,587 is paid in cash, on the spot.

The maximum Ar Rahnu amount is RM100,000. However, Ar-Rahnu Time Zone limit RM10,000 per transaction.

If you bring in 250g gold bar, the 'nilai marhun' is 250g x RM149/g = RM37,250. 75% is RM27,937. ArRahnu can only give you only RM10,000 though.

How to avoid the situation?

1. Bring in gold bars/dinar/jewelleries worth RM10,000/0.75 = RM13,000, which is equivalent to 80g gold bar 999 (or 90g jewelleries/dinar 916) for each transaction. 
2. Bring your purchase receipt as well
3. Do not bring gold bar 999 of > 90g for each transaction 

SAFEKEEPING FEE

Ar-Rahnu Time Zone's Safekeeping fee is 1% per month.

If you purchased a lot of gold bar, this can be an alternative to you should you require cash.

SILVER IN MEDICINE : SUPPORT FOR THE MARKET?

Tuesday May 15, 2012, 4:15am PDT

By Michelle Smith - Exclusive to Silver Investing News

Why silverware? Why didn’t people choose to eat and drink from palladium, ivory, or other materials? Of course many people did. Throughout history people have used gold, clay, wood, and a wide range of other items at mealtime. For many of those who chose silver, however, it was more than just a fad or a symbol of financial standing. Ancient civilizations reportedly used silver because they recognized a connection between the metal and their health. Today, people are also finding silver to be increasingly useful in health-related applications. But will these uses have a material effect on the silver market?

For thousands of years, individuals have used silver at the table, on the battlefield, and in healthcare. The metal has been relied upon to prevent and treat infections, to treat wounds, to prevent food spoilage, and to prevent water contamination. Since long ago, the metal has been credited as having antimicrobial, antibacterial, and antiseptic properties.

Medical uses of silver and preventative applications

Many readers have probably received a silver treatment at least once, as silver nitrate is commonly placed in the eyes of newborns to prevent infections that could cause blindness. Silver has also been widely used in dentistry to fabricate fillings.

Today, the uses of silver for its healing and preventative properties are growing.

For example, it was only in 2007 that the US Food and Drug Administration approved the marketing of silver-coated breathing tubes. Prior to this approval, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, every year, 15 percent of patients on ventilators contracted ventilator-associated pneumonia. For tens of thousands of people these infections proved fatal. Including silver in the fabrication of these endotracheal breathing tubes reduces this risk and has likely saved many lives.

Silver is also used in much the same way for catheters and other medical implantation devices. The metal is used to coat surgical instruments and emergency ward equipment to prevent and reduce the transmission of infections.

Wound creams, gels, and powders are made with silver, and the metal is fabricated into wound dressings because it is considered toxic to germs and can prevent the invasion and livelihood of bacteria and yeast. Silver has also been found to reduce the adhesion of dressings to wounds and thus improves the comfort of burn victims.

A recent edition of Silver News spotlights the Trinity Bed Protection System. The covering system is supposed to provide an effective and impermeable barrier between patients and the surfaces they lie on, such as mattresses and stretchers. A notable benefit of this bedding is that it is supposed to retain its antimicrobial properties even after repeated washings.

Karuma, which makes a tablet for children called the PlayBase Plus, is said to be embedding silver into the device’s touchscreens. This Silver Seal technology is used to help reduce the bacteria on the screen’s surface, thus providing protection for little ones.

Many people also believe that consuming dietary supplements containing silver can effectively treat and prevent certain conditions, including infections and viruses. Though these supplements may be available, the medical community has not been eager to rally around this type of treatment.

A few years ago, the FDA said silver has no known physiological functions or benefits when taken orally. The agency further warned that consuming silver could have adverse effects. These include argyria, which is the permanent and irreversible discoloration of the skin. Consuming the metal is said to have the potential to increase the body’s production of melanin, causing the skin to get darker when exposed to sunlight. The FDA also said silver can interfere with the body’s absorption of drugs such as quinolone antibiotics and tetracycline antibiotics.

Medical-related silver demand and the silver market

Anyone familiar with the silver market knows that industrial demand can be economically sensitive. During times of financial turmoil and uncertainty, fewer goods may be purchased and therefore less silver is required to make the products that contain it. But what about the health-related demand for silver? Do these applications provide a strong, stable base of support for the metal?

Many of the medicinal uses of silver are fairly new, and a large number are considered novelty items. Most silver-bearing health-related items are not new products. Rather, adding silver is considered to make an existing product better.

Given that the metal itself is a key selling point, its use provides a competitive advantage rather than a necessary cost, says a Silver Institute report.

The report also says that despite the initial cost of silver-bearing products, the longer-term benefits of reduced spending on aftercare may justify the economic cost of using these materials.

Perhaps only time will tell whether consumers at the pharmacy will pay more for bandages or first-aid creams containing silver than for those without it, or whether healthcare providers will spend more on silver-containing medical supplies to lower the risk of infection. But, the newness of silver in medical applications combined with higher costs suggests that demand for many of these products could be affected by economic factors.

Even if this scenario doesn’t play out, medical silver demand does not currently represent a large portion of overall fabrication demand. The quantities used in most applications are very small.

In 2010, total demand for all such applications was estimated to be less than 0.5 million ounces (Moz). While medical silver is considered a likely growth area, the associated demand is not expected to grow on an explosive scale. The Silver Institute report predicts that medical-related silver demand could approach 3 Moz by 2015.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

SILVER - I'M BUYING THE INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS - MIKE MALONEY

BEAR MARKET OR BULL OPPORTUNITY?

Bears have had a number of reasons to stand tall lately since many recent developments that should have been bullish for gold haven’t been. But, even as prices have continued to fall, there are those who suggest that while bears may believe they are taking control, smart investors should be taking advantage of the opportunities.

Given the heightened levels of uncertainty and threat of turmoil in the Eurozone, gold should be raking in bundles of safe haven cash, but that isn’t happening. Instead, safety seekers are flocking to the dollar even as the US fails to harness its spending and its economic data loses some of the shine that was seen in the first quarter.

Followers of the market are well aware that gold had become addicted to loose monetary policy. The dependence has become so extreme that drastic price fluctuations can result from the mere suggestion of action or disappointment at the lack of such suggestions.

But this weekend, following weaker-than-expected data in April, which the markets interpreted as further proof of a slowdown, China slashed its reserve rate ratio. In doing so, banks, which now need to hold less cash, have more freedom to douse it on the public; however, the gold market has not taken notice.

“Welcome to the ‘new’ normal…where the perception that China is experiencing a worrisome deceleration supersedes the possible benefits of an accomodative stance by the government,”wrote Jon Nadler, Kitco Senior Metals Analyst.

India, which is a key market for gold, is displaying bearish attitudes through its lack of demand for the metal. The marriage and festive season has passed, international markets are sending negative cues about gold, and compounding these problems is the fact that even with falling prices the metal is still relatively expensive when purchased with volatile rupees. At R28,540 per 10 grams, an ounce of gold on Tuesday would cost over $1,650, about $100 more than in New York.

As if that isn’t enough ammunition for the bears, they can also celebrate the the gut-wrenching drop in gold prices.

Scotiabank said that while on the downside, it will become increasingly bullish as each support level is breached. Those levels, said the bank in its May metals report, are at $1,630, $1,623, $1,614, and $1,612. Gold has crashed through all of those levels, giving up all of its gains for the year. Tuesday, the metal hit the lowest levels seen since December 29.

Gold the commodity

Gold is now trading as a commodity. In this environment, bullish sentiment is drying up and fund managers have been exiting the market for weeks. Last month, gold Eagle sales saw a sharp decline. And last week Barclays Capital cut its forecast for gold by eight percent to $1,716, citing recent price declines and the slowdown in demand from India and China.

Though bearish tones may be growing louder, not everyone is convinced that gold is set to crash and burn. Nor is everyone ready to cash out and move to the sidelines.

Central banks are expected to stay in the market. Last year they purchased 440 tons of gold. Scotiabank is expecting this trend to continue as governments and sovereign wealth funds look to diversify away from fiat money.

“This should help to underpin confidence in bullion and in turn keep investor interest active, especially into price dips,” the bank said.

If central bankers’ attitudes are similar to those held last year, they should find the current price weakness very encouraging; in 2011 price declines often served as buying opportunities.

ETF investors, whether they are aware of it or not, are considered sticky money. In April, there was a trickle of outflows from these holdings. However, for the most part, ETF investors have lived up their moniker despite the downtrend of gold prices.

While it is certainly not an event worthy of champagne, investors added 2 tons to ETFs last week, which made them net buyers for the first time in a month. This occurrence came in the midst of a risk-off environment that by comparison saw silver ETF investors drop about 76 tons.

There is still a notable amount of optimism towards gold, though it may not get a lot of airtime at the moment.

Legendary investor Jim Rogers recently said that he is still bullish on gold, and that the the pullback in prices creates a value buying opportunity. A number of professional traders continue to hold their ground and see long-run opportunity in the market.

Even though Scotiabank noted that a fall below the aforementioned technical levels is bearish, it also added that moves below $1,550 may well turn into spikes.

“We believe that getting bearish on gold at current levels (c.$1,560) would be wrong and too late,” says a market note from Standard Bank. “In fact, we believe that from a risk/return perspective, gold should be bought, not sold, on dips lower than this.”


ORIGINAL ARTICLE
INDEX 

THE FINANCIAL EXPRESS : GOLD HITS FOUR-MONTHS LOW AS CRISIS KNOCKS EURO

LONDON, May 9 (Reuters): Gold fell for a third day on Wednesday, touching a four-month low and all but wiping out its gains for the year as the escalation in the euro zone debt crisis prompted investors to favour dollars and German government bonds as safe-havens.

Political disarray in Greece, a change in the French presidency and renewed concern about the resilience of the Spanish banking sector sent the euro to a 15-week low against the dollar and propelled German bond futures to record highs.

Spot gold was down 1.2 percent on the day at $1,585.01 an ounce at 0940 GMT, having lost more than 3 percent so far this week in its largest weekly slide since mid-March.

"It's not as though the escalation of the political risk in Europe is doing anything positive for gold prices at all and this is totally different to how we were between 2008 and 2010, when all the correlations were totally reversed and the weakening of the euro actually led to a strengthening in the gold price," Natixis head of commodity research Nic Brown said.

"This very much suggests that we are not getting demand for gold from European investors. The dymanic is purely from the impact of the crisis on to the FX market and from that, directly on to the gold price," he said.

The gold price is on the verge of wiping out all the gains for 2012 and shows a rise of just 1.4 percent, compared with a year-to-date gain of as much as 14 percent in late February.

This compares with an 8.4 percent advance in the S&P 500 and gains of nearly 10 percent and nearly 6.5 percent in Chinese equities and crude oil respectively in 2012.

FEARS GROW IN EUROPE

In Europe, radical leftist Alexis Tsipras was to meet the leaders of Greece's mainstream parties on Wednesday to try to form a coalition government, after demanding they first agree to tear up the country's EU/IMF bailout deal.

In Spain, Madrid will demand banks set aside another 35 billion euros ($45 billion) against loans to builders, financial sources said, as it battles to rebuild confidence in a sector where huge losses have raised fears the country may need an international bailout.

Nervousness over the worsening situation in Spain sent yields on the benchmark 10-year Obligacion beyond the 6.00 percent threshold that many see as unsustainable in terms of servicing the country's debt burden, thereby further undermining the euro.

The drag of the single European currency on the gold price intensified on Wednesday.

Gold's correlation to the euro, the frequency with which these two assets move in tandem, strengthed to reach a one-week high of +41 percent, meaning gold was more likely to mirror movements in the euro than trade in the opposite direction.

Gold priced in euros fell by 1.1 percent on the day to a four-month low of 1,220.07 euros an ounce.

"Gold seems to be pegged to the euro and this is not going to rally in a hurry either. So all in all, I expect the market to trend lower and would look for a trading range for the next month of 1525-1650," David Govett, head of precious metals at Marex-Spectron, said.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

GOLD PRICES FALL SHARPLY DESPITE BULLISH FUNDAMENTALS

While political leaders debate the pros and cons of austerity, David Levenstein believes things are going to get worse before they get any better.

Author: David Levenstein

Posted:  Wednesday , 09 May 2012

JOHANNESBURG -

In a trading pattern that has become  all too familiar, almost the minute the US session began on Comex Tuesday, the price of gold was sold down by almost $40 an ounce to trade at a five month low of around the $1600 an ounce.  Yet the fundamentals for gold remain extremely bullish and there were two new major pieces of market news that investors would normally consider as rather bullish. And, this is in addition to the deteriorating crisis in the Eurozone that should have seen a flight out of capital into gold. And, contrary to what one may expect, the US dollar rallied-on the back of a faltering euro- and gold was sold off sharply. But, gold was not alone. Global equities and most commodities got hit in this broad-based sell-off.

One of the articles released Tuesday was about the Indian government's decision to rescind the doubling of duty on gold jewellery which was introduced on March 16 by the Finance Minister, Mr. Mukherjee, causing imports of gold to plunge.Imports in April had plunged to 30 tons to 35 tons from 90 tons a year earlier, according to the Bombay Bullion Association. While the new taxes   were aimed at increasing the cost of gold purchases and curbing its consumption, they caused a country-wide strike by jewellers which lasted for around 6 weeks. 

The removal of the excise duty is positive news for India's jewellery industry and will probably revive demand for gold in India, the world's largest gold consumer.

"Gold demand will likely improve. It's a good decision," Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association, said of the scrapping of the excise tax.

The other piece of bullish news was about Chinese demand for gold. According to news article published by Bloomberg, China's gold imports from Hong Kong surged more than six-fold in the first quarter of this year. Imports from Hong Kong were 135,529 kilograms (135.53 metric tons) between January and March, from 19,729 kilograms in the year-earlier period, according to data from the Census and Statistics Department of the Hong Kong government. Shipments in March rose 59% from February.

Demand has climbed in the world's second-largest economy and China may overtake India this year to become the biggest user of gold, according to a forecast from the producer-funded World Gold Council. Last year, total Indian demand including for jewellery and investment was 933.4 tons compared to China's 769.8 tons.

To me, these two events are bullish for gold, and I also maintain that the problems in the Eurozone are extremely bullish for gold. Since this global financial crisis began in 2008, things have not improved, and today the risk of a collapse in the monetary system is looking more imminent. And, a loss of confidence in fiat currencies will lead to a massive flight to hard assets especially gold and silver.

While there are many who have confidence in our global leaders, I am one who does not. Therefore I continue to urge individuals to own some gold, and the price should not be the determining factor---possession should be.

It is obvious that current policies of EU leaders are flawed and are not doing anything to reverse the downward spiral of falling growth, rising unemployment and weakening banking systems. One thing that it has done though is that it has caused mounting social, economic and political turmoil

While these leaders debate the pros and cons of austerity and growth or whether sound finances will generate growth through structural reform, one thing I am sure of, is that things are going to get worse before they get any better.

Right now Greece is collapsing and moving rapidly into further political turmoil. For once I agree with well-known economist, Nouriel Roubini, who said.  "Greek membership of the Euro zone is now at risk with serious contagion risks for the rest of the periphery." He also added that the "result of Greek elections is much more serious than the French one as the former leads to chaos while Hollande will turn out to be a moderate."

While Hollande has pledged to "finish with austerity," Merkel has cautioned against hopes that the austerity measures already agreed by European leaders could now be renegotiated. "We in Germany, and I personally, believe the fiscal pact is not up for negotiation," she said.

It seems that EU financial leaders are going to have to rethink their plans of austerity measures to control their spiraling debt and runaway government spending. But, if they are to spend more money, just how are European governments going to pay for it all? If the ECB dishes out more money to their banks so that they may buy more sovereign bonds, ultimately this will exacerbate the European banking and debt crisis.

Meanwhile, the latest employment figures released by the US Department of Labour on Friday showed that non-farm payrolls rose by only 115,000 in April, which was well below market expectations of plus 160,000. At the same the unemployment rate dropped to 8.1%, its lowest level in three years.  Investors are now worried that a slower than expected recovery in the economy will impact negatively on hiring which in turn will curtail consumer spending which accounts for about 70% of the economy. This may be the catalyst to prompt the US Fed from another round of monetary easing which may be introduced under a new term instead of "quantitative easing."

The latest unemployment figures from the Eurozone were not all that encouraging either. In March the unemployment in the Eurozone jumped to a record 10.9%.

The figures coincided with a survey showing manufacturing in the 17-nation Eurozone stumbling to near three-year low levels as spending cuts and tax rises push the bloc towards recession. Almost 17.37 million men and women, 169,000 more than in February, were out of work in March, according to the Eurostat data agency. Even though the data showed that the southern Eurozone countries were worst affected -- with Spain's jobless rate 24.1% according to Eurostat -- there were signs of stronger states such as Germany coming under pressure too. Germany had a jobless rate of 5.6% in March, and although there was a headline increase of 19,000 it was only the second rise in 25 months.

While these leaders debate the pros and cons of austerity and growth or whether sound finances will generate growth through structural reform, one thing I am sure of, is that things are going to get worse before they get any better.  And, as the bullion banks continue with their surreptitious interventions in the gold markets, I am not going to be duped by any political rhetoric that things are improving.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

  

Minutes before the opening of the US session, the price of gold gets sold off. I believe it will rebound from $1600/oz level.

                                              

About the author

 David Levenstein began trading silver through the LME in 1980, over the years he has dealt with gold, silver, platinum and palladium. He has traded and invested in bullion, bullion coins, mining shares, exchange traded funds, as well as futures for his personal account as well as for clients.

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

CURRENT GOLD PRICE

It was 60-Days Low last night.

It reached more than  78.6% discount in the peak of USD1900.30/oz

Today, the price has moved up slightly, to USD1587/oz ( at the point of writing).

Between USD1580/oz to USD1600/oz is a good buy. Below USD1580 is a bonus to all investor.

Now, see this

Do you know the term  Head & Shoulder ?

Have you watch Mike Maloney video? It is here.

Did you see a shoulder and a head have already formed since August 2011?
There is prediction of another shoulder being formed soon.

What is neckline?
Neckline is the resistance line at the 'neck'. Based on the chart it is roughly around USD1800/oz.

What do you think will happen?


Should a shoulder is formed, the peak is estimated at the mirror image of the Shoulder, Head, Shoulder
ie USD2100/oz.


Watch Mike Maloney video

You next question should be HOW TO BUY GOLD / SILVER?




Other INVESTMENT ARTICLES

Investopedia on Head & Shoulder

SILVER - I'M BUYING THE INVERSE HEAD & SHOULDERS - MIKE MALONEY

Please watch the video and you can understand my scribbles below. Happy watching all.


GOLD

• points to buy : when price is below the Moving Average line, 7 points from 2001 until now
• draw support line which meets 6 lowest points + trend line = triangle
• it will break the triangle either downwards or upwards
• Shoulder + Head + Shoulder : where's the neckline?
• Flipping it over, the head for gold can reach USD2100/oz  :D

SILVER

• silver, manipulated heavily, thus difficult to analyse
• showing Shoulder + Head + Shoulder as well. Neckline, flip it over, silver becomes USD44/oz
• big resistance, a pullback, new Head & Shoulders, neckline, flip, silver is USD60-65/oz.
• double the price today. (At the point of writing, silver price is at USD28.83/oz
• In Sept 2010, silver was USD18/oz, moves up to USD44/oz. It doubles the price. Mike was right at that time.
• Every pullback is a gift

HIS POINTS :

• If you wait until Crisis before you do anything, it will be too late
• Continue to educate yourself

INVESTMENT ARTICLES

HOW TO BUY SILVER?